Investment

EGAS is a good illustration of Dollar Cost Averaging.
If you think it's going to go up into the winter, buy a dip, not at a peak.
It is tempting to forget that. Just buying every Tuesday (!) works.
I bought some on the red line yesterday and this morning it had dropped 2.25% which is -500 quid . Grr
So I bought some more at green.
I've bought about 20 times so the AVERAGE is off the bottom of the chart.
View attachment 424306


levelling off ? Is it? You have to zoom out
View attachment 424307
I bought most in June/July, when it was really hot and there was another Qatar hit, at half today's price. I have sold some on tops.

Oil can recover relatively quickly, but LNG supply will likely take years, It's 20% down.
If you can sell when it goes rising to flat and buy (just after a) dip, you can a) do better and b) protect yourself, but as I just demonstrated, it's easy to get that wrong.
Hence buying a bit every week or so, evens the slope out.
The important thing is "What's the Trend?", but that's a topic whch belongs in the stock market dealing thread.
I don't do pound-cost averaging

But when I am making periodic, non-urgent trades, I usually place limit orders so I won't hit a spike (or a dip, if selling). I base the price on what looks to me like the current trading range. I intend to hit it within a week or so. Sometimes I am wrong.
 
Like JohnD’s argument about premium bonds you are undoubtedly right, but you get a much better return on a property with a low (historic) capital value than say leaving it in the bank. So invest in property and if you have any spare try the stock market would be my approach
Buying a holiday home and renting it out for 105 days per year. Gives you a nice place to stay, that pays for itself and no council tax to pay.

Buy to lets are a PIA.
 
If you hold them to redemption date (which might be 5, 10, 30 years away) you get a guaranteed return. If you sell them early, you might do better or worse.
Crucially that misses out the subject here - short term ones which can have maturities between 6 months and a couple of years.
They are attractive to people who have enough money to pay high rates of income tax
No, people paying basic rate tax find them attractive too. As I set out in #296, for basic rate tax payers:
Building society 3.9% net pa, bond 4.55% net pa. And the bond has more security and no upper limit.

Stock Market "drawdowns" (crashes) happen, and can be severe and take years to recover. That's absolutely fine when you're 30, stats show you should accept it and hold on - unless you need the money. They could be a life-affecting problem when you're old. Therefore the move towards safer investments is appropriate.

I don't like bonds,
Nor I, really, I'd rather trade with the money. But being old and tired having something which will keep pace with inflation or a little better with no surprises, is OK.

Some investment gurus say you have to diversify diversify diversify . Buffet said you diversify when you don't know where to put your money.
The majority say that bonds/fixed interest has a place in any portfolio.

All investments can drop exactly when you need to sell them, except BS accounts, but even those impose a penalty or impossibility, if you're locked in for a fixed period.

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I checked a few things since 1999. That's a bit random, it just happens to be when ISAs really got going. You could only put 3k into them until '08.

If you had put the max every year into a Top rate Isa ISA (That's a total of ~£301k, and I used Moneyfacts average rates, +0.75%) since then, you would now have
from a Cash ISA, about £400k.
For a Stocks and Shares Isa in the S&P 500, £1.3 million (exchange rates accounted for but in the calcs, alter it a bit, so it's +/-)

Straight Growth:
If you put 1000 into a cash Isa in 1999, you would have £2090
If you put 1000 into the S&P 500, you would have £10,070.
If you put 1000 into UK property, you would have £4400, on a straight house price comparison.


If you used it as a 10% deposit for a house and had an interest-only mortgage, then, taking off the 9000 and all the "simple" interest payments, you'd have about £23,000. But with a load of costs, possible big repairs, etc etc.
If you had rented it out, You would have collected about 27000 in net income, coming out with about £52000, but with a load of caveats. Bad tenants could have wrecked the place, etc.

That's why a lot of the very rich people git there in property.
But a lot of the very rich got there in the stock market, too

This is where it gets complicated - you're using LEVERAGE in the house model. If you apply just SOME of that to the stock market, it wins by miles.
I've used Leverage, a lot, which I've explained
The figure you get for "some modest leverage" by my standards, is north of £300k.
It's free and easy to go 2x or 3x or 5x for short periods.


EVEN WITHOUT it, if you follow a trend once it has established, you wonder why anyone uses the S&P500. I almost never have.
Three years ago I was 2/3rds in Jupiter India and it grew 50% in a year, which I recorded at the time, here.
That was the black dotted line, The others are all "instruments" I've used, some of them leveraged on top.
I'm not pretending anyone can get it all spot on, but something which has been running for a month is worth easing into, and by the time it's 3 months, it's easy.
This is not madly sitting at a terminal all day, this is 'check it a couple of times a week', stuff:

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Sorry the black date marker is irrelevant. The % figures by the names are, too.

Now imagine stacking up some of those rising dotted lines. The longer they are, the easier they were to pick, obviously.
I've used all of them, though not as precisely perhaps as marked! I've made massively more in leveraged Day Trading, than sitting in things like these. If you put something like 3x PLTR on the chart, it flies off the top, it goes up to 18000%..

Some will ask why Fund Managers don't do particularly well - it's simply because they aren't allowed to do things like put 2/3rds of client money into one fund.
 
Certainly true for Feb - April. I did a fair bit of panic buying in April. If you held you nerve it would be worth 1300 today.
 
I saw figures that said if you had put £1000 into the S&P 500 in Feb 2025, it would have been worth £770 in April the same year.
You're drivelling down your chin again! The markets go down sometimes,, yes. No Schit Scherlock.
Though if you were using a stop-loss, you could have rebought at the bottom and made money.
In June you'd have been UP from the starting point as much as you'd be from a BS in a YEAR.
It would now be worth £1450. = TEN years!
 
You're drivelling down your chin again! The markets go down sometimes,, yes. No Schit Scherlock.
Though if you were using a stop-loss, you could have rebought at the bottom and made money.
In June you'd have been UP from the starting point as much as you'd be from a BS in a YEAR.
It would now be worth £1450. = TEN years!
Sounds easy. Wait till the market goes down, buy then and hope it goes up again. Easy. Can’t lose.
 
Sounds easy. Wait till the market goes down, buy then and hope it goes up again. Easy. Can’t lose.

Or just hold your nerve.

I lived through the 2008/2009 crash.

My pension plan dropped by more than a half.

FTSE 100 is blue in the chart.

I was scarred, but not scared, and put in more to try to make up lost ground

2008 2009 crash.png


But three years later, it had recovered all of that, and more.

There has never been a ten-year period that the stock marked ended lower than it started.

If you can't ride ups and downs, try a different hobby.
 
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