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I have never said anything about this before to anyone, I will say however that John is a major investor. I have seen evidence of this and that is all I am saying about it.
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- Thread starter pete01
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John's right, you just hold on, normally. A couple of times there has been a warning, such as with covid, when it took a couple of days for the drop to really happen. But obviously, you don't know, maybe there won't be a big dip.
There have been many negative signals recently, so I've already sold most stocks in volatile AI things which will probably gain a lot. I have some in the energy stocks, and boring globals, like high divident payers and SmartGARPs which tend to be steady. You can lose a bit of gain doing that, because they move less than the the fastest, but at my age it's insurance which is well worthwhile, I'm not prepared to wait 3 years if the perceived bubble causes a big drop.
"Getting out early ", is bad because every time it dips a few %, you sell at a loss. Faced with a chart like the one John showed, I'd be all out at about -10-15%. There was a "catalyst" everyone knew. I'm surprised the drop wasn't steeper.
It's too much angst for me now to have to go back to use a leveraged heavy position long, to catch up.
Selling at -10% might save one suffering a big fall though. Whatever you do is always wrong. Too much or little, too late or early.
You don't buy "at the bottom" because you don't know where that is. Market pundits, the "technical analysis" of the chart, fundamentals of the companies, all combine. The object is to buy when the rise, post dip, just restarts. You can look at the volume (£$£$) of buying in it. It's not precise, but it works to a fair extent. It uses positive feedback, as always. Once the price starts rising again, people don't want to miss out, so they buy, which pushes it up more. Bloomberg TV is quite good, they interview people who have seen it all before.
Yesterday/last night was a case in point. Chips and the like got hit, down 9-10% last night in Korea. The rest of the tech market followed.
Today I watched about 4 likely fast movers, which were moribund this morning but bounced back a few percent later. Using the 5x leverage I always do, it was possible to make back quite a bit of ground. A few percent, times 5, is significant. I "sized up" somewhat. It's a bit exhausting though.
Screeners find which stocks are moving, for you.
The trouble is, pseudo-wise people are ALWAYS saying there's about to be a major crash!
"This time it's going to be different" is always the worry. Usually it's best to ignore those little dips, like the one caused by Trump's Tariff board, and just use the dip as an opportunity.
The ducks really are all lining up now though for a bigger drop. It's not worth chasing the fashionable and high tech stocks other than for a day trade now, imho, they're too volatile.
There have been many negative signals recently, so I've already sold most stocks in volatile AI things which will probably gain a lot. I have some in the energy stocks, and boring globals, like high divident payers and SmartGARPs which tend to be steady. You can lose a bit of gain doing that, because they move less than the the fastest, but at my age it's insurance which is well worthwhile, I'm not prepared to wait 3 years if the perceived bubble causes a big drop.
"Getting out early ", is bad because every time it dips a few %, you sell at a loss. Faced with a chart like the one John showed, I'd be all out at about -10-15%. There was a "catalyst" everyone knew. I'm surprised the drop wasn't steeper.
It's too much angst for me now to have to go back to use a leveraged heavy position long, to catch up.
Selling at -10% might save one suffering a big fall though. Whatever you do is always wrong. Too much or little, too late or early.
You don't buy "at the bottom" because you don't know where that is. Market pundits, the "technical analysis" of the chart, fundamentals of the companies, all combine. The object is to buy when the rise, post dip, just restarts. You can look at the volume (£$£$) of buying in it. It's not precise, but it works to a fair extent. It uses positive feedback, as always. Once the price starts rising again, people don't want to miss out, so they buy, which pushes it up more. Bloomberg TV is quite good, they interview people who have seen it all before.
Yesterday/last night was a case in point. Chips and the like got hit, down 9-10% last night in Korea. The rest of the tech market followed.
Today I watched about 4 likely fast movers, which were moribund this morning but bounced back a few percent later. Using the 5x leverage I always do, it was possible to make back quite a bit of ground. A few percent, times 5, is significant. I "sized up" somewhat. It's a bit exhausting though.
Screeners find which stocks are moving, for you.
The trouble is, pseudo-wise people are ALWAYS saying there's about to be a major crash!
"This time it's going to be different" is always the worry. Usually it's best to ignore those little dips, like the one caused by Trump's Tariff board, and just use the dip as an opportunity.
The ducks really are all lining up now though for a bigger drop. It's not worth chasing the fashionable and high tech stocks other than for a day trade now, imho, they're too volatile.
