Will Rusia invade?

[JP_]

Not really a good strategy, eventually the unchallenged bully, will come for you. Once he's done his work on everyone else.

Maybe we are not ignoring. There has certainly been a lot more military activity in the skies the last few days around here.

Apparently the Russians are also taking a very close interest in our recent fail on our new aircraft carrier ...

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-...ontinues-for-ditched-stealth-fighter-12472082

 

[^woody^]

If there is the political will, a united stance by western nations will be more than enough to face up to any Russian move on the Ukranian border. Its all down to how many casualties we are willing to sustain. Table top tactics will have already been played by western military hierarchy. The head of the armed forces will inform the politicians that they can win the war........but sustain **% casualties in the process.

It's way more complex than that.

Any invasion of Ukraine causes distraction, and that gets taken advantage of - an escalation on the Poland / Belarus border and excuse for Russian assistance. A Russian ship bumps into a NATO ship in the Med or Black Sea, a Russian/US clash in Syria or Libya, Iranians use this to attack a yank boat in the Gulf, China seizes the opportunity to invade Taiwan.
And then there is no way to predict how things will escalate, or for how long things will stay conventional.
It may even be that any attack on Ukraine may not be the actual objective, but part of a grander plan.

It is a massive game of chess with umpteen possibilities, not just a simple estimates based on a local or confined ruck

Whilst Russia does have genuine fear of NATO presence on it's border (however unfounded) they too weigh up all the scenarios and despite the rhetoric do not want a war with NATO - although they may with Ukraine.

But yes I agree that the political will is needed to deter, and as you will be aware of, there is the non-public capabilities and possibilities that only each others militaries will be aware of and that tends to provide the greater deterrence.

 

[JohnD]

Will Rusia invade?

Yes, Putin will seek to rebuild and extend the Russian Empire that Stalin controlled, whenever an opportunity arises.

he has already invaded and annexed parts of Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan, and has his eye on the post-Soviet state of Belarus, where the current leader may call on "friendly assistance from his neighbour" as the only way of crushing popular feeling against him.

He maintains exclaves in the Baltic states, and when funds permit, provides subsidies to give the impression that life inside the Empire will be better than outside.

Putin was in Berlin when the wall came down, and has been reported as arguing that the Soviet-backed tanks and troops should have been used to crush the public demonstrations, machine-gunning the citizens if necessary. None of the East German leaders or generals were willing to authorise force because they feared being strung up from lamp-posts if it failed.

 

[Vinty]

and when funds permit, provides subsides to give the impression that life inside the Empire will be better than outside

Sounds a bit like the EUs policy of bunging poor countries cash in return for their sovereignty.

 

[fillyboy]

Sounds a bit like the EUs policy of bunging poor countries cash in return for their sovereignty.

I find it extraordinary that there are 'British boots' on the border in Poland when the most Poland's fellow member states have managed to do is offer moral support'
The same will happen when/if it kicks off in the Ukraine.

It's bizarre how the EU have sleep walked into the energy crisis they're now facing.

 

[JohnD]

It's bizarre how the EU have sleep walked into the energy crisis they're now facing.

UK is not in the EU.

 

[fillyboy]

It's bizarre how the EU have sleep walked into the energy crisis they're now facing.

UK is not in the EU.

Which is exactly why we're not facing a gas shortage this winter, the EU however, is.

 

[ellal]

Which is exactly why we're not facing a gas shortage this winter, the EU however, is.

You are a f*cking nutter...

But then we have all known that for ages!

 

[fillyboy]

You are a f*cking nutter...

But then we have all known that for ages!

Just as well you've s**t out on leaving the UK, at least you'll be warm.

 

[Vinty]

This crisis was inevitable with the election of sleepy Joe Biden.
Trump warned that Democrat Hilary Clinton was a war monger and she would start a war with Russia if elected.
Fortunately she never got the chance.
The Democrats have only been in power a short time and now we have another crisis in Easten Europe.
The EU also has to take a lot of the blame for this latest crisis in Ukraine.
It was the President of Ukraines last minute refusel to sign an EU/ Ukraine association agreement which led to his overthrow by Ukrainian nationalists back in 2014, this led to the uprisings by ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine.

 

[fillyboy]

This crisis was inevitable with the election of sleepy Joe Biden.
Trump warned that Democrat Hilary Clinton was a war monger and she would start a war with Russia if elected.
Fortunately she never got the chance.
The Democrats have only been in power a short time and now we have another crisis in Easten Europe.
The EU also has to take a lot of the blame for this latest crisis in Ukraine.
It was the President of Ukraines last minute refusel to sign an EU/ Ukraine association agreement which led to his overthrow by Ukrainian nationalists back in 2014, this led to the uprisings by ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine.

Be careful Vinty, they don't like 'facts' on here.

 

[noseall]

Be careful Vinty, they don't like 'facts' on here.

Vinty's opinion is as valid as anyone's.

 

[noseall]

sovereignty.

Thank the lord we have ours back. It's made such a huge difference.

Lol. Brexit - huge pile of made up bulls hit founded upon lies.

 

[AngleEyes]

This crisis was inevitable with the election of sleepy Joe Biden.
Trump warned that Democrat Hilary Clinton was a war monger and she would start a war with Russia if elected.
Fortunately she never got the chance.
The Democrats have only been in power a short time and now we have another crisis in Easten Europe.
The EU also has to take a lot of the blame for this latest crisis in Ukraine.
It was the President of Ukraines last minute refusel to sign an EU/ Ukraine association agreement which led to his overthrow by Ukrainian nationalists back in 2014, this led to the uprisings by ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine.

Be careful Vinty, they don't like 'facts' on here.

Facts according to Vinty?
That's an oxymoron. It's like using integrity and Boris Johnson in the same sentence.

The pro-Russian Ukrainian President refused to sign an EU-Ukraine Agreement, so the majority of Western Ukraine, via an organised political movement, ousted the pro-Russian president and his government.
But the pro-Russian eastern Ukrainians revolted, and some paid "supporters" violently occupied government places in Eastern Ukraine.

Eventually, after violent escalation, "Russian citizens" (later confirmed to be Russian military by Putin) entered Ukraine to assist with the annexing of the Crimea.
The overwhelming majority of Ukranians were against a union with Russia, but the Crimea was absorbed into Russia through violence.

A poll conducted by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from 8–18 February 2014 assessed support for union with Russia throughout Ukraine. It found that, overall, 12% of those polled favoured union with Russia.[69] 68.0% of those from the four regions surveyed agreed that Ukraine should remain independent, with friendly relations maintained between Russia and Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine​