Unlike some on here, it’s not just
all about me.
Possible delay to the June easing.
- Thread starter Mottie
- Start date
all about me.
Sponsored Links
Because more of the over 50's have opted not to have the jab and are 'generously' spreading it around their neighbours.
- Joined
- 7 Jan 2010
- Messages
- 13,092
- Reaction score
- 3,023
- Country
On the news it said all age groups are affected in Bradford, so either older Bradford residents didn't have the jab, or the jab is ineffective against the Indian sub continent strain.
Sponsored Links
Bradford is quite similar to Bolton, with regards to the population.
- Joined
- 1 Apr 2016
- Messages
- 13,439
- Reaction score
- 540
- Country
The Indian variant has spread from the unvaccinated young to the older unvaccinated.
Cases are rising.
Cases are rising.
- Joined
- 1 Apr 2016
- Messages
- 13,439
- Reaction score
- 540
- Country
Last edited:
I tend towards agreeing, we should have locked down against India much sooner than we did.
- Joined
- 7 Jan 2010
- Messages
- 13,092
- Reaction score
- 3,023
- Country
But what good is that when they fly back here via Turkey ( at the time) ?
This isn't rocket science. The Indian variant is more infectious, this is known. (SAGE 89)
We suspect the vaccines provide some protection against the Indian variant, possibly the same as for the British strain. Not known but early tests show it should work and hospitalisation numbers bear that up.
We know that there is no strong correlation between racial groups, presumably what people mean by ' the population', and the rate of spread. There's enough variation in 'the populations' catching and spreading the Indian Variant quickly to make that implausible.
What's happening is very simple. A new variant has entered the country and it has spread to a large number of areas. In some it has had time to build more than others or has gotten a few mass spreader events.
Where it has established it is spreading through unvaccinated people, mostly the young as they haven't had a chance to be vaccinated. Older unvacinatated people are also catching it as are some vaccinated people (although less often). This is all exactly what you'd expect.
The worrying questions are:
Are there more serious infections in the unvaccinated than we'd expect for the British strain? We don't have the data yet.
Is the rate of spread fast enough that it'll result in the NHS being forced to stop non urgent treatment again? We don't have the data yet to be certain but it's very possible.
Are we seeing more infections for people who have been vaccinated than we'd expect for the British strain? We don't have enough data yet.
If the answer is yes to any of those three then we need to step controls back up as soon as possible to minimise the amount of time we'll have to spend under the harsher controls.
Oh and one more question: how much faster and wider is it spreading now we've relaxed our controls? Allowing overnight stays and Indoor visits is only going to help it spread geographically.
We suspect the vaccines provide some protection against the Indian variant, possibly the same as for the British strain. Not known but early tests show it should work and hospitalisation numbers bear that up.
We know that there is no strong correlation between racial groups, presumably what people mean by ' the population', and the rate of spread. There's enough variation in 'the populations' catching and spreading the Indian Variant quickly to make that implausible.
What's happening is very simple. A new variant has entered the country and it has spread to a large number of areas. In some it has had time to build more than others or has gotten a few mass spreader events.
Where it has established it is spreading through unvaccinated people, mostly the young as they haven't had a chance to be vaccinated. Older unvacinatated people are also catching it as are some vaccinated people (although less often). This is all exactly what you'd expect.
The worrying questions are:
Are there more serious infections in the unvaccinated than we'd expect for the British strain? We don't have the data yet.
Is the rate of spread fast enough that it'll result in the NHS being forced to stop non urgent treatment again? We don't have the data yet to be certain but it's very possible.
Are we seeing more infections for people who have been vaccinated than we'd expect for the British strain? We don't have enough data yet.
If the answer is yes to any of those three then we need to step controls back up as soon as possible to minimise the amount of time we'll have to spend under the harsher controls.
Oh and one more question: how much faster and wider is it spreading now we've relaxed our controls? Allowing overnight stays and Indoor visits is only going to help it spread geographically.
Last edited:
Thankfully Europe has now ramped up vaccination rates; France, Germany, Spain are reaching the 300k to 500k 7 day rolling average...similar to UK.
- Joined
- 1 Apr 2016
- Messages
- 13,439
- Reaction score
- 540
- Country
They have left the country for over 10 days before entering the UK.
Indians didnt fly back via Turkey as they could travel direct back to the UK.
- Joined
- 1 Apr 2016
- Messages
- 13,439
- Reaction score
- 540
- Country
Matt Hancock who lied in Parliament. No Surprise there.
- Joined
- 1 Apr 2016
- Messages
- 13,439
- Reaction score
- 540
- Country
Always blame the public when they are told mixed messages. It never fails to win the support of the sycophants on here.
Sponsored Links
