As a couple of people have suggested, I have started a new thread, to see if anyone wishes to add anything.
Just to reiterate my argument, let's start with a few "best guess" assumptions:
Let's assume a new generation occurs each 25 years, so in 100 years that's 4 generations.
From limited data, about 15% of women after 44 years old are childless. Let's assume that the same percentage applies also to men because there's wars, accidents, homosexuality, and all sorts of other influences. Which give us about 30% of the population are childless.
We can ascertain the actual populations of some western countries by census.
Everyone has 2 parents, and thus 4 grandparents, 8 great grand parents, 16 great, great grandparents, etc, ad infinitum. (let's use g, g, g, grandparents for Great (X3) grandparents).
So, by maths, I, and the rest of us, in the last 100 years, have 2 to the power 4 antecedents, i.e 16 direct antecedents. And possibly 16 g, g grandparents, 8 g grand parents, 4 grand parents, and 2 parents. That's 30 possibly living antecedents, but more probably 8 great grandparents, 4 grand parents and 2 parents, that's possibly 14 living antecedents.
Now if we take say 16 members on this site, that 16 X 14 parents, grandparents and great grandparents, we see how quickly those numbers mount up.
16 X 14 = 224
Now each 25 years that figure doubles for the number of antecedents (not living obviously), So in just 100 years, assuming that none of us share any of those antecedents, there are 3,584 distinct antecedents.
The population of UK in 1920 AD was about 40million. But we assumed that 30% of those were childless, so we reduce that population to about 28 million people.
Go back another 100 years, and about 1820 AD we 16 people would have about 57,000 antecedents, assuming there were no relationships at all between those members.
Go back another 100 years, to about 1720 AD, there would be about 1,000,000 antecedents, assuming there was no relationship between those 16 living members.
And the population of UK at that time was about 5,000,000, less the 30% childless, that's about 3,000,000
You see, by simple maths, that in merely 300 years, the chances of us not being inter-related dwindles to infinitesimal chances.
Just another 100 years back to about 1620 AD, and we 16 members have about 14,000,000 distinct antecedents, assuming that none of us were related.
But the population of UK at that time was only about 4,000,000, less the 30% childless, and the breeding population of UK was about 2,400,000
So y'all say hello to your distant cousins now.
Just to reiterate my argument, let's start with a few "best guess" assumptions:
Let's assume a new generation occurs each 25 years, so in 100 years that's 4 generations.
From limited data, about 15% of women after 44 years old are childless. Let's assume that the same percentage applies also to men because there's wars, accidents, homosexuality, and all sorts of other influences. Which give us about 30% of the population are childless.
We can ascertain the actual populations of some western countries by census.
Everyone has 2 parents, and thus 4 grandparents, 8 great grand parents, 16 great, great grandparents, etc, ad infinitum. (let's use g, g, g, grandparents for Great (X3) grandparents).
So, by maths, I, and the rest of us, in the last 100 years, have 2 to the power 4 antecedents, i.e 16 direct antecedents. And possibly 16 g, g grandparents, 8 g grand parents, 4 grand parents, and 2 parents. That's 30 possibly living antecedents, but more probably 8 great grandparents, 4 grand parents and 2 parents, that's possibly 14 living antecedents.
Now if we take say 16 members on this site, that 16 X 14 parents, grandparents and great grandparents, we see how quickly those numbers mount up.
16 X 14 = 224
Now each 25 years that figure doubles for the number of antecedents (not living obviously), So in just 100 years, assuming that none of us share any of those antecedents, there are 3,584 distinct antecedents.
The population of UK in 1920 AD was about 40million. But we assumed that 30% of those were childless, so we reduce that population to about 28 million people.
Go back another 100 years, and about 1820 AD we 16 people would have about 57,000 antecedents, assuming there were no relationships at all between those members.
Go back another 100 years, to about 1720 AD, there would be about 1,000,000 antecedents, assuming there was no relationship between those 16 living members.
And the population of UK at that time was about 5,000,000, less the 30% childless, that's about 3,000,000
You see, by simple maths, that in merely 300 years, the chances of us not being inter-related dwindles to infinitesimal chances.
Just another 100 years back to about 1620 AD, and we 16 members have about 14,000,000 distinct antecedents, assuming that none of us were related.
But the population of UK at that time was only about 4,000,000, less the 30% childless, and the breeding population of UK was about 2,400,000
So y'all say hello to your distant cousins now.
