Russian looters

[JohnD]

I wonder if the Russian TV covering the parade will be delayed by a few seconds so that if there is an incident the Kill Switch can be use to prevent the images being broadcast to the general public.

You mean like the Cenotath ceremony, where a bumbling, or possibly drunken, Johnson cocked up the wreath-laying, and a old bit of footage was cut in on TV to hide from the world our shame at having a bumbling, or possibly drunken, Prime Minister?

No doubt Putin will have a bullet-proof shelter to hide in if anything frightening happens, in the same way that Johnson hid in a fridge to avoid the terror of unscripted Journalist questions.

 

[Notch7]

Putin may well announce Russia is at war with Ukraine on May 9th

he will use that as a rallying cry.

 

[ajohn]

How many Iskanders do they have left? Can they bring their other 2 Slava (like Moskva) class ships into use?

Why would they? The Moskva is a rather special purpose ship intended to take out aircraft carriers. It's big, old and a nice thing to hit. Still leaves their modern missile ships in action. That's why missiles continue to be launched. Also from the ground.

Sites that list losses - I wonder but the estimate on the number of tanks Russia has comes out at about 12,000. All of them including Ukraine's can use reactive armour. Some shots shown of tanks are actually mobile artillery or infantry fighting vehicles. Lots of those too. Russia has probably been preparing for this for some time.

Kyiv? Mariupol action was rather different. As I see it Kyiv was a little like an old fashioned forlorn hope. Something that may have worked especially if resistance was low. War techniques never change that much really just the kit used. Kyiv and other places also tied up Ukraine troops and kit. Their real troops.

Russian troop losses. Initially NATO suggested some with a 2 to 1 range as it's not possible to be precise. Ukraine's estimate via Kyiv was way higher. The figures will be higher than they might have been given the nature of the attack on Kyiv. They could have flattened the place.

Ukraine is being fed info from western military. That evens things up. Russia has the ability to watch. Ukraine doesn't. Neither the west or Ukraine will say they are loosing for rather obvious reasons. There will be positive spin just as there will be in Russia. Of late some have said Russia is being more methodical. S|ow progress. Technique to me seems to be just the same as it always has been. Soften places up and at some point attack. Attacking defended positions will always result in losses. This is why Ukraine has been given plenty of defensive kit. When they get to a stage where they can attack they may face the same problem. Long range stuff means they can soften up but then comes an attack. For precise long range they need missiles. Drones might help. Russian drones are a bit of an unknown. Arms fairs show they have a number but no one knows what state they are in.

So in my view we do not have enough info to really judge the state of "play". It will emerge eventually. TBH I suspect Russia attacking was a no choice from their point of view once the troops etc were there and they will regret it at some point even given a win what ever form that takes. However trading with them no longer needs the USD nor the ruble, for some countries. Anything will do for those.

 

[IT Minion]

Sites that list losses - I wonder but the estimate on the number of tanks Russia has comes out at about 12,000. All of them including Ukraine's can use reactive armour. Some shots shown of tanks are actually mobile artillery or infantry fighting vehicles. Lots of those too. Russia has probably been preparing for this for some time.

Firstly, reactive armour isn't magic. It might make it harder to destroy a tank but it doesn't make it invulnerable.

One of the RUSI reports I posted earlier explains why it's particularly ineffective and hard to use on the flanks of a tank. It also doesn't protect the tracks. One Ukrainian general said that the infantry weapons pinned down the Russian armour so their artillery could kill them.

Russia is generally prepared for WWIII in terms of equipment. In terms of operational planning they've clearly been working on this for a while, but with horrifically wrong assumptions. In terms of unit level specifics there's lots of evidence they gave virtually no warning to some units and they utterly screwed up their invasion logistics.

 

[ajohn]

Russia is generally prepared for WWIII in terms of equipment.

They have a lot of stuff that wouldn't fit in with WWIII unless some sort of agreement was reached to prevent use of nukes. In any case an invasion and conquering of Russia itself ????

I mentioned reactive armour mostly because of mention on the web - which tanks can use it. Turns out that both sides can use it and up popped a picture of a Ukraine T72 with reactive armour. All are aware of what it can't do even me. Some were not aware of which tanks can use it.

The rest. Rather than assume that Russia is stupid why not view it in terms of why they might do what they did. When Kyiv was mentioned several people were fully aware that storming it with troops would be any generals nightmare. Street fighting always is to some extent. Even more so when it's a large city.

I'm not supporting Russia by any means. I don't. The war of words - all use that. If you want to take it all on face value from any of the sides that's fine by me. |A lot of Russia's is plainly stupid. Sides includes the west as well.

 

[IT Minion]

They have a lot of stuff that wouldn't fit in with WWIII unless some sort of agreement was reached to prevent use of nukes. In any case an invasion and conquering of Russia itself ????

I mentioned reactive armour mostly because of mention on the web - which tanks can use it. Turns out that both sides can use it and up popped a picture of a Ukraine T72 with reactive armour. All are aware of what it can't do even me. Some were not aware of which tanks can use it.

The rest. Rather than assume that Russia is stupid why not view it in terms of why they might do what they did. When Kyiv was mentioned several people were fully aware that storming it with troops would be any generals nightmare. Street fighting always is to some extent. Even more so when it's a large city.

I'm not supporting Russia by any means. I don't. The war of words - all use that. If you want to take it all on face value from any of the sides that's fine by me. |A lot of Russia's is plainly stupid. Sides includes the west as well.

That probably sounded better in it's native Russian.

There is no excuses for communicating assault plans in the clear. But Russia did, specifically their VDV forces who should really know better. There is no way you should push an armoured convoy down two MSRs without support, Russian doctrine says so. But they did. Russia badly bungled the start of their war.

 

[ajohn]

There is no way you should push an armoured convoy down two MSRs without support,

The strangest one of the lot. It did mysteriously move without any problem eventually. Pundits now are saying it's a war of attrition for a negotiating position. Has it been that all along? There doesn't seem to be any chance of it ever being anything else. Was the convoy used as a threat? I've no idea but fact it moved eventually.

The other fact and it's being mentioned now - it could go on for a long time. Wil it or wont it? It will damage Russia, not much doubt about that - unless they find they can maintain decent economics. If that happens it turns into a usual war - who runs out first or gives up for some reason such as has happened several times in other wars.

Personally I can't help wondering about proxy wars too. That isn't excusing Russia etc but that can have implications. Unlike Syria it doesn't have the same problems that resulted in things not working out as expected.

 

[IT Minion]

The strangest one of the lot. It did mysteriously move without any problem eventually.

Utter revisionist horseshit.

 

[ajohn]

Utter revisionist horseshit.

Both satellite images if that is what they were could be fakes or both could be factual.

That probably sounded better in it's native Russian.

Typical response when some one realises they may have gone off piste. The only people who will know about the piste in practice is the military. Not us. They Kyiv comments are misleading. Actually over all I can't see how Russia can really win. Not in WWII Germany type defeat anyway.

 

[Justin Passing]

[Quote ="Justin Passing"] said: ↑
How many Iskanders do they have left? Can they bring their other 2 Slava (like Moskva) class ships into use?

[Quote = ajohn]Why would they?[/QUOTE]

To hit the steelworks? - oh look something just did.

 

[ajohn]

To hit the steelworks? - oh look something just did.

The only mention I have heard on the steel works is shells but the whole reporting on the steel works is currently a bit garbled.

Anyway all I was pointing is that they have other missile ships and the Moskava is one but largely meant for other uses. Details of the black sea fleet are about on the web.

 

[Notch7]

Battlefront stats

note invading force needs at least 3x ratio

Ukraine are attacking supply lines behind these - at least some reports indicate as such

push back by UA around Krarkiv

 

[Notch7]

Detailed analysis of likelihood of Russian breakthrough in Donbas

“a little closer look at the state of operations along the line of operations ranging from Izium to Popasna in east Ukraine to gain a better understanding of what it will take to achieve a decisive breakthrough”

“Russia has struggled, and continues to struggle, with properly resourcing & sustaining their war effort, but the Russian military clearly sees the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD, in particular the Siverskyi Donets line, as decisive terrain to control”







https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1521700041601302529.html

 

[Vinty]

The figures will be higher than they might have been given the nature of the attack on Kyiv. They could have flattened the place

The attack on Kiev may have been a feint.
The Russians never committed enough soldiers to take a city that size.

 

[Justin Passing]

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg
You can get a dailymap with detailed front and battlegroup movements. Not many, atthe moment.

eg

The guy (german I think) gives a strategic roundup before enlarging the map and going through individual area fronts.
There are some question marks for a couple of days which he gets information on later.
I'll leave you to dig into where he gets the info.

Kharkiv region, Russians are pulling bac, with some low quality troops left in place, which aren't well armed. Cannon fodder I guess

1. 

Worth a listen.


Both sides are thinly spread, by the looks. Russia could do something "demonstrative" any time .