Honour our commitments on leaving the EU ? Sod off...

[Notch7]

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed - is a common legal doctrine that sets out the rules for a negotiation. It means that work can be done to progress agreement without prejudicing other discussions. It also gives both parties the ability to reflect holistically and not be held to earlier agreement with a promise of flexibility further down the line, which doesn't come. This isn't really the issue here, its a very workable approach. The issue is the "divorce before trade" approach which is inflexible.

In terms of stance:
- if they accept we owe nothing then we are "buying" a trade deal, whereas if we agree we are paying our debts, then they are gifting us a trade deal. Its just about convincing the other that your position is fair and reasonable.

Thanks, that makes good sense.

 

[JohnD]

the end-of-membership-accounts settlement is a pot that the anti EU propagandists want to keep boiling, because it is a good way of stirring up resentment among brexiteers. It's a distraction from more important topics.

What has David Davis said about Safeguarding the status and rights of the EU27 citizens and their families in the United Kingdom and of the citizens of the United Kingdom and their families in the EU27 Member States? The EU says it is the first priority for the negotiations.

What has he said about continuing to support peace, stability and reconciliation on the island of Ireland?

 

[Notch7]

I disagree. If we pay our debts, we may be able to then buy a trade deal. (It will not come free or cheap, unless we can agree some terms on a tit for tat basis, which is highly unlikely). The EU have already said we cannot pick and choose the best bits of membership without paying for it.
If we do not pay our debts, I would assume a trade deal is completely off the cards.

I can understand that and it does seem to be the EUs position.

Although its difficult to see how we can agree to pay our debts because we havent been given a bill. So at what point are we paying debts and at what point are we paying for a trade deal? The EU will keep that point a moving target.

My point earlier is that the offer made in Florence was to pay 2 years of full net payments to allow time for transition. But that means the EU will get the same money they are getting now so they have no incentive to do anything.

They will no doubt just keeping saying not enough progress has been made.

 

[JohnD]

...My point earlier is that the offer made in Florence was to pay 2 years of full net payments to allow time for transition...

If you are right (which is far from clear) Theresa is suggesting that we simply extend our membership of the EU for an additional two years, at the end of which we float off into the Atlantic with no end-of-membership-accounts settlement. She may or may not get what she asks for. She may or may not think that we will continue to be bound by EU rules during this period. She may or may not think that whoever is PM in March 2021 can get another extension. Perhaps that PM will ask to rejoin the EU.

If Theresa thinks that arranging a non-disastrous Brexit will take four and a half years, perhaps she was premature in giving two years' notice on 29 March 2017.

 

[JohnD]

" The cabinet infighting before the speech did not help. Word has reached Berlin that Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, has privately boasted that he had prevented Mrs May from making a more realistic offer — perhaps three years of transition and budget payments. How, European diplomats ask, can they deal seriously with a government in which the foreign secretary might at any moment move to topple the prime minister to further his own career?"

https://www.ft.com/content/9dd0e21e-9f80-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946

 

[transam]

Johnson should be at worst moved to another department. some thing like minister for drains ???

or at best sacked. Blokes a menace & a liability & tbh has or is making this country look a laughing stock.

total disgrace imho

 

[motorbiking]

I think he’s ok.

I see no reason for a long transition:

- we keep paying in
- we can’t negotiate trade deals
- we sort their budget problems out without getting our trade deal sorted.

 

[JohnD]

The government has still not scheduled Parliamentary debate on the EU (Withdrawal) Bill.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-parliaments-41607238

We know that it is highly contentious, and a great many amendments are being tabled by all sides. We know these could derail the governments ambitions, and we know that defeat could bring the government down, overthrowing Theresa, sparking more tory leadership battles, and triggering a general election.

As if by magic, the media are full of arguments about the financial settlement.

the end-of-membership-accounts settlement is a pot that the anti EU propagandists want to keep boiling, because it is a good way of stirring up resentment among brexiteers. It's a distraction from more important topics.

Who could have foreseen such a thing?

 

[Notch7]

As if by magic, the media are full of arguments about the financial settlement

Given that the EU is losing one of its largest net contributors and one that can never be replaced, its hardly surprising there is a lot of media coverage. Especially so, since the EU are refusing either to tell the UK negotiators how much and they are saying they want a financial settlement sorted before starting trade talks.

 

[^woody^]

I've often left the pub without buying a round.

 

[JohnD]

its hardly surprising there is a lot of media coverage.

Are you imagining that the citizens of the 27 are interested? Or that it is filling the pages of continental newspapers?

You are mistaken.

Europeans weary of the bumbling incompetence of British negotiators, caused by the inability of the UK government to agree what UK objectives are, and endless Cabinet squabbling.

"If Davis is troubled by the mess the British have created for themselves, he doesn't show it. It also doesn't seem to trouble him that four senior officials have already left his ministry. He appears to be free of self-doubt, and even fellow party members say he is the only person they know who can strut while sitting down. Davis has summarily elevated the squabbling in Westminster to the level of "constructive ambiguity," and claims the negotiations are going splendidly. So splendidly, apparently, that he sometimes leaves the office early.

"He is not a man for details," says a long-standing associate.

Davis describes the 14 policy papers his ministry has published since mid-August, which outline future relations with the EU in everything from trade to exchanging data, as "creative and inventive" proposals.

On closer inspection, however, the policy papers all seem to rely on the same contradictory spirit. In almost magical fashion, they assume that everything will simultaneously change and remain the way it is today. A border between Northern Ireland and Ireland? Well, yes, but it would be an invisible one. Abolish the customs union? Of course, but replace it with a model that "mirrors" this customs union. The impression in Brussels is that the British want out of the EU, and yet somehow they want to stay in.

With the policy papers, Davis is trying to strike a balance among all opposing interests in Britain, says James Chapman, his former chief of staff. "They are intended for the homefront." The truth, though, is that they are unable to paper over one fact: "There is neither a Plan A nor a Plan B.""

http://www.spiegel.de/international...brexit-talks-a-1169944.html#spLeserKommentare

"Newspapers across Europe, including Die Zeit, Le Monde, Repubblica and El Pais all singled out Ms May’s demand for a transitional period.

German newspaper Die Zeit’s headline “A transition period without a plan” summarised commentators’ reaction that the speech was void of concrete propositions to make the negotiations move forward.

Italy’s La Repubblica said that while the PM had created an opening on the issue of EU citizens, “problems remain” with the UK’s approach.

On Twitter, social media users were also quick to criticise the lack of detail in Ms May’s speech, which failed to mention a financial settlement as part of the EU divorce bill but only guaranteeing money the UK has already committed to pay."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...u-citizens-transition-headlines-a7962566.html

A British chip-wrapper called the Stun has become an international laughing stock when they published an article intended to be in German, but without using a translator or a German-speaking proofreader. Sadly this uncaring incompetence reflects badly on the UK.
https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/907946382430031872

 

[Notch7]

Are you imagining that the citizens of the 27 are interested? Or that it is filling the pages of continental newspapers?

You are mistaken.

I see, so now you are saying that:

As if by magic, the media are full of arguments about the financial settlement.

Isnt the case?

 

[IWalkLikeHimaMartian]

... Especially so, since the EU are refusing either to tell the UK negotiators how much and they are saying they want a financial settlement sorted before starting trade talks.

Perhaps the framework for calculating the amount is different for EU than UK.
It may be that UK is offering a lump sum to cover everything. Whereas, I assume, that the EU is proposing that the various organisations and projects that UK agreed to contribute towards are still met, despite Brexit.
Additionally, the EU may want to avoid disclosing an overall figure because then it becomes a red line! It may prefer to have a list of projects, etc, towards which the UK agreed to contribute, but the list is open for negotiation.
While (and if) the UK is simply offering a cover-all lump sum there is no way forward. And we do not know what lump sum has been offered. (TM'sFlorence offer of a lump sum was to cover the transition period, and the period up to 2020 - the EU accounting period).
Until they can agree on the basis and framework for calculating the amount, the negotiations are 'deadlocked'.

There other debts outstanding:

Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe for the Eurasia Group risk consultancy, told the FT: “The message from the EU is clear: covering budget holes is only a start; for a deal in October May also has to acknowledge that the UK will pay to settle past debts.”

The EU claims the UK has debts of up to €100bn, which could net out at a smaller sum if British receipts are stripped out.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...ment-boris-johnson-olly-robbins-a7956431.html

 

[JohnD]

For the benefit of notch:

As if by magic, the BRITISH media are full of arguments about the financial settlement.

 

[JohnD]

For the further benefit of notch:

Look at the front page, and tell me how much they care about the Brexit shambles we've put ourselves in

http://www.zeit.de/index

http://www.repubblica.it/index.html

http://www.lemonde.fr/