Predict the outcome of the 4th July election

[Notch7]

The Guardian describe Starmer as a man with the charisma of a peanut

I think that comment may have been Suella Braverman.

I can’t actually think of any Labour politician who would be a better choice for party leader.

TBH nor can I for any other party

I don’t have a problem with boring, we need some calm in politics.

Trump was exciting as president, but you wouldn’t want him to have any power

 

[transam]

Small labour majority or a hung parliament ?

Starmer really needs a large (ish) working majority in order to combat the momentum type supporters who will be out to cause trouble

A sort of pay back for his fair weather friend behaviour to his former colleagues

 

[martygturner]

If you do vote for the conservatives who are you actually voting for.... the mad wingers, the decent and honourable at the centre or the craven sel serving con artistist in the middle with their forget the past, don't judge us on what we did , I will never forget or forgive sunack for furlough... looked how I helped millions of people he said whilst calmly forgetting to mention he was the bloke that sacked us all.

 

[Notch7]

If you do vote for the conservatives who are you actually voting fo

Since 2019 it hasnt been the Conservative party, its been the UKIP/BNP populist party made up of grifters and snake oil salesmen

If Labour win, I wonder how the Conservative party will re build itself, the ERG nutters still have a stranglehold over the party and the further to the right they take the less electable it becomes........kind of where Corbyn took Labour in the other direction, although he wasnt a spiv, he meant well....unlike the Bravermans and 30p Lees on the right

 

[gas112]

 

[Ihavenojob]

A vote for Reform is a vote for a Labour Government, a vote for limp dumb is a vote for a Labour Government. If you don't want a Tory government, vote Labour, if you don't want a Labour Government, vote Tory, but please try and vote. If the numbers voting continues to fall, who knows what they will do to get into power, a coup?

 

[JohnD]

Since 2019 it hasnt been the Conservative party, its been the UKIP/BNP populist party made up of grifters and snake oil salesmen

If Labour win, I wonder how the Conservative party will re build itself, the ERG nutters still have a stranglehold over the party and the further to the right they take the less electable it becomes........kind of where Corbyn took Labour in the other direction, although he wasnt a spiv, he meant well....unlike the Bravermans and 30p Lees on the right

The far right nutters are preparing themselves to say "we lost because we weren't far right enough" and push further to attract yet more extreme nutters

Which will push them further away from the mainstream voters.

They don't understand the damage they caused by choosing Truss.

 

[blup]

I personally think he will struggle to get a working majority

Labour need a bigger swing than 1997 and Starmer hasnt got the personality to to encourage voters.

not that "a personality" is what we need most right now

It was interesting that you and some of the right wingers on here agreed he would get a small majority. I think it is tsunami time but maybe something else will come up

 

[Ihavenojob]

I wonder if this election will be similar to that of 1992? 13+ years of a Tory government, just had a recession, Labour ahead in the polls, yet Labour lost.

 

[JohnD]

It was interesting that you and some of the right wingers on here agreed he would get a small majority. I think it is tsunami time but maybe something else will come up

Have a look at the graphs I posted earlier and tell me if you can see significant Tory support in any region of the country or any section of the population except the over 65s. I can't.

 

[fillyboy]

'It's not a gamble if you know you're going to lose,' says Sunak

THE prime minister has rubbished claims he is gambling with his party’s future, explaining that it is not a gamble when losing is assured.

www.thedailymash.co.uk

THE prime minister has rubbished claims he is gambling with his party’s future, explaining that it is not a gamble when losing is assured.
Sunak has told his party there is no doubt in his mind as to the outcome of the surprise July general election, therefore the element of risk had been entirely eliminated.
He said: “Gamble? This is a sure thing. We’re the Manchester City of electoral defeat.
“To those MPs concerned you will lose your seats, you absolutely will. Bank on that. Some of you to the f**king Lib Dems. Start coming up with excuses to fill that awkward 14-year gap in your CV now. I wouldn’t list me as a reference, not if you want the job.
“People ask why I’ve called an election now. Was it inflation? Was it Rwanda? Does it matter? It could have been the pollen count for all the difference it would make.
“There comes a time when putting six bullets in the chamber, giving it a good old spin, putting it to your temple and pulling the trigger is a bloody relief. Six weeks and we’re done. Don’t worry, I haven’t got any knockout policies up my sleeve. Quite the reverse.”
Daily Express reader Norman Steele said: “He’s bluffing. We’ll win by a landslide.”

 

[JohnD]

I wonder if this election will be similar to that of 1992? 13+ years of a Tory government, just had a recession, Labour ahead in the polls, yet Labour lost.

The polls started to turn in late 1990, and crossed back and forth. The same is not showing this year.

When you look at that graph, you would expect one of the parties at around 40% to win. You wouldn't predict that the Lib Dems at around 20% would win. Even if the polls were inaccurate and didn't accurately show seats won by constituency.

Today, Labour is around 40%, and the Cons at around 20%

can you see any numbers suggesting a hung Parliament?

Pollsters have learned, and improved their techniques.

 

[blup]

Have a look at the graphs I posted earlier and tell me if you can see significant Tory support in any region of the country or any section of the population except the over 65s. I can't.

I cant and more importantly nor can sir john curtice who seems spot on with his analysis and predictions.

 

[carmanmemoranda]

I wonder if this election will be similar to that of 1992? 13+ years of a Tory government, just had a recession, Labour ahead in the polls, yet Labour lost.

Always possible.

Let's hope not though

 

[IT Minion]

I wonder if this election will be similar to that of 1992? 13+ years of a Tory government, just had a recession, Labour ahead in the polls, yet Labour lost

The difference in 92 was fairly small. A few %.

Of the 50 opinion polls published during the election campaign period, 38 suggested Labour had a narrow but clear lead.

Right now the labour lead is massive 45% to 23%. There's plenty of time for that to change but this isn't anything like 92. More like 97.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726